The Heat Is Online

Worldwatch: Earth's Meltdown Accelerates

Earth Enters the Big Thaw

By BBC Environment Correspondent Alex Kirby, March 7, 2000

Around the world, ice sheets and glaciers are melting at a rate unprecedented since record-keeping began.

The Worldwatch Institute, based in Washington DC, has compiled reports from across the globe, which show that the melting accelerated during the 1990s - the warmest decade on record.

The Institute says glaciers and other ice features are especially sensitive to temperature shifts, and that "scientists suspect the enhanced melting is among the first observable signs of human-induced global warming".

Warming warning

Many scientists believe the Earth is gradually warming up because of the release of heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere from human activity. But other researchers dispute this.

They point to inconsistencies in temperature records over the last century, and in particular the data measured from space and by high-altitude balloons which show no recent warming trend at all.

Some of the examples of thinning ice in the Worldwatch report include:

  • Arctic ocean sea ice: shrunk by 6% since 1978, with 14% loss of thicker, year-round ice. Thinned by 40% in under 30 years
  • Greenland ice sheet: has thinned by more than a metre a year on its southern and eastern edges since 1993
  • Antarctic sea ice: ice to the west of the Antarctic peninsula shrank by about 20% between 1973 and 1993 - the decline continues
  • Tien Shan mountains, central Asia: 22% of glacial ice volume has disappeared in the last 40 years
  • Quelccaya glacier, Peruvian Andes: retreat of 3 m a year in the 1970s had increased to 30 m annually by the 1990s.

Three Antarctic ice shelves - Wordie, Larsen A and Prince Gustav - have disintegrated within the last decade. Worldwatch says: "Antarctica's vast land ice is also melting, although there is disagreement over how quickly."

Dr David Vaughan, of the British Antarctic Survey, told BBC News Online: "Overall, not much seems to be happening in Antarctica."

"On the Antarctic peninsula, a fairly small area, there is a warming, and that does seem to be having an effect on the ice sheets. But the meteorological records are very short, and there is a lot of year-to-year variability. There's a lot of argument about whether there really is a warming trend," Vaughan said, adding: "And while there are very few people who'll dispute that the peninsula has warmed very rapidly during the last 50 years, we don't know whether this is a global or a regional phenomenon."

Positive feedback

The Earth's ice cover reflects much of the sun's heat back into space, and Worldwatch says the loss of much of it would affect the global climate, raise sea levels, and threaten water supplies.

And it says the land and water left exposed by the retreating ice would themselves retain heat, creating a feedback loop[ that would speed up the warming process. It also believes melting ice in the Arctic could release enough fresh water into the north Atlantic to disrupt the Gulf Stream which warms northweat Europe.

The Institute says the world's glaciers, taken as a whole, are now shrinking faster than they are growing, and it says the World Glacier Monitoring Service described losses in 1997-98 as "extreme".

Warmer and hungrier

Worldwatch also warns of the effects of retreating ice on wildlife. In northern Canada, it says, reports of hunger and weight loss among polar bears have been correlated with ice cover changes.

And in Antarctica, sea ice loss, rising air temperatures and increased precipitation are altering the habitats and the feeding and breeding patterns of seals and penguins.

Melting of Earth's Ice Cover Reaches New High

Worldwatch News Brief, March 6, 2000

By Lisa Mastny

The Earth's ice cover is melting in more places and at higher rates than at any time since record keeping began. Reports from around the world compiled by the Worldwatch Institute (see attached data table) show that global ice melting accelerated during the 1990s-which was also the warmest decade on record.

Scientists suspect that the enhanced melting is among the first observable signs of human-induced global warming, caused by the unprecedented release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases over the past century. Glaciers and other ice features are particularly sensitive to temperature shifts.

The Earth's ice cover acts as a protective mirror, reflecting a large share of the sun's heat back into space and keeping the planet cool. Loss of the ice would not only affect the global climate, but would also raise sea levels and spark regional flooding, damaging property and endangering lives. Large-scale melting would also threaten key water supplies as well as alter the habitats of many of the world's plant and animal species.

Some of the most dramatic reports come from the polar regions, which are warming faster than the planet as a whole and have lost large amounts of ice in recent decades. The Arctic sea ice, covering an area roughly the size of the United States, shrunk by an estimated 6 percent between 1978 and 1996, losing an average of 34,300 square kilometers-an area larger than the Netherlands-each year.

The Arctic sea ice has also thinned dramatically since the 1960s and 70s. Between this period and the mid-1990s, the average thickness dropped from 3.1 meters to 1.8 meters-a decline of nearly 40 percent in less than 30 years.

The Arctic's Greenland Ice Sheet-the largest mass of land-based ice outside of Antarctica, with 8 percent of the world's ice-has thinned more than a meter per year on average since 1993 along parts of its southern and eastern edges.

The massive Antarctic ice cover, which averages 2.3 kilometers in thickness and represents some 91 percent of Earth's ice, is also melting. So far, most of the loss has occurred along the edges of the Antarctic Peninsula, on the ice shelves that form when the land-based ice sheets flow into the ocean and begin to float. Within the past decade, three ice shelves have fully disintegrated: the Wordie, the Larsen A, and the Prince Gustav. Two more, the Larsen B and the Wilkins, are in full retreat and are expected to break up soon, having lost more than one-seventh of their combined 21,000 square kilometers since late 1998-a loss the size of Rhode Island. Icebergs as big as Delaware have also broken off Antarctica in recent years, posing threats to open-water shipping.

Antarctica's vast land ice is also melting, although there is disagreement over how quickly. One study estimates that the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), the smaller of the continent's two ice sheets, has retreated at an average rate of 122 meters a year for the past 7,500 years-and is in no imminent danger of collapse. But other studies suggest that the sheet may break more abruptly if melting accelerates. They point to signs of past collapse, as well as to fast-moving ice streams within the sheet that could speed ice melt, as evidence of potential instability.

Outside the poles, most ice melt has occurred in mountain and subpolar glaciers, which have responded much more rapidly to temperature changes. As a whole, the world's glaciers are now shrinking faster than they are growing, and losses in 1997-98 were "extreme," according to the World Glacier Monitoring Service. Scientists predict that up to a quarter of global mountain glacier mass could disappear by 2050, and up to one-half by 2100-leaving large patches only in Alaska, Patagonia, and the Himalayas. Within the next 35 years, the Himalayan glacial area alone is expected to shrink by one-fifth, to 100,000 square kilometers.

The disappearance of Earth's ice cover would significantly alter the global climate-though the net effects remain unknown. Ice, particularly polar ice, reflects large amounts of solar energy back into space, and helps keep the planet cool. When ice melts, however, this exposes land and water surfaces that retain heat-leading to even more melt and creating a feedback loop that accelerates the overall warming process. But excessive ice melt in the Arctic could also have a cooling effect in parts of Europe and the eastern United States, as the influx of fresh water into the North Atlantic may disrupt ocean circulation patterns that enable the warm Gulf Stream to flow north.

As mountain glaciers shrink, large regions that rely on glacial runoff for water supply could experience severe shortages. The Quelccaya Ice Cap, the traditional water source for Lima, Peru, is now retreating by some 30 meters a year-up from only 3 meters a year before 1990-posing a threat to the city's 10 million residents. And in northern India, a region already facing severe water scarcity, an estimated 500 million people depend on the tributaries of the glacier-fed Indus and Ganges rivers for irrigation and drinking water. But as the Himalayas melt, these rivers are expected to initially swell and then fall to dangerously low levels, particularly in summer. (In 1999, the Indus reached record high levels because of glacial melt.)

Rapid glacial melting can also cause serious flood damage, particularly in heavily populated regions such as the Himalayas. In Nepal, a glacial lake burst in 1985, sending a 15-meter wall of water rushing 90 kilometers down the mountains, drowning people and destroying houses. A second lake near the country's Imja Glacier has now grown to 50 hectares, and is predicted to burst within the next five years, with similar consequences.

Large-scale ice melt would also raise sea levels and flood coastal areas, currently home to about half the world's people. Over the past century, melting in ice caps and mountain glaciers has contributed on average about one-fifth of the estimated 10-25 centimeter (4-10 inch) global sea level rise-with the rest caused by thermal expansion of the ocean as the Earth warmed. But ice melt's share in sea level rise is increasing, and will accelerate if the larger ice sheets crumble. Antarctica alone is home to 70 percent of the planet's fresh water, and collapse of the WAIS, an ice mass the size of Mexico, would raise sea levels by an estimated 6 meters-while melting of both Antarctic ice sheets would raise them nearly 70 meters. (Loss of the Arctic sea ice or of the floating Antarctic ice shelves would have no effect on sea level because these already displace water.)

Wildlife is already suffering as a result of global ice melt-particularly at the poles, where marine mammals, seabirds, and other creatures depend on food found at the ice edge. In northern Canada, reports of hunger and weight loss among polar bears have been correlated with changes in the ice cover. And in Antarctica, loss of the sea ice, together with rising air temperatures and increased precipitation, is altering the habitats as well as feeding and breeding patterns of penguins and seals.




Measured Loss


Sea Ice

Arctic Ocean

Has shrunk by 6 percent since 1978, with a 14 percent loss of thicker, year-round ice. Has thinned by 40 percent in less than 30 years.


Ice Sheet


Has thinned by more than a meter a year on its southern and eastern edges since 1993.




United States

Has retreated nearly 13 kilometers since 1982. In 1999, retreat rate increased from 25 meters per day to 35 meters per day.


National Park

Rocky Mtns., United States

Since 1850, the number of glaciers has dropped from 150 to fewer than 50. Remaining glaciers could disappear completely in 30 years.


Sea Ice

Southern Ocean

Ice to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula decreased by some 20 percent between 1973 and 1993, and continues to decline.

Pine Island Glacier

West Antarctica

Grounding line (where glacier hits ocean and floats) retreated 1.2 kilometers a year between 1992 and 1996. Ice thinned at a rate of 3.5 meters per year.

Larsen B

Ice Shelf

Antarctic Peninsula

Calved a 200 km2 iceberg in early 1998. Lost an additional 1,714 km2 during the 1998-1999 season, and 300 km2 so far during the 1999-2000 season.

Tasman Glacier

New Zealand

Terminus has retreated 3 kilometers since 1971, and main front has retreated 1.5 kilometers since 1982. Has thinned by up to 200 meters on average since the 1971-82 period. Icebergs began to break off in 1991, accelerating the collapse.

Meren, Carstenz, and Northwall Firn Glaciers

Irian Jaya, Indonesia

Rate of retreat increased to 45 meters a year in 1995, up from only 30 meters a year in 1936. Glacial area shrank by some 84 percent between 1936 and 1995. Meren Glacier is now close to disappearing altogether.

Dokriani Bamak Glacier

Himalayas, India

Retreated by 20 meters in 1998, compared with an average retreat of 16.5 meters over the previous 5 years. Has retreated a total of 805 meters since 1990.

Duosuogang Peak

Ulan Ula Mtns., China

Glaciers have shrunk by some 60 percent since the early 1970s.

Tien Shan Mountains

Central Asia

Twenty-two percent of glacial ice volume has disappeared in the past 40 years.




Glacial volume has declined by 50 percent in the past century.




Glacial area has shrunk by 35 to 40 percent and volume has declined by more than 50 percent since 1850. Glaciers could be reduced to only a small fraction of their present mass within decades.

Mt. Kenya


Largest glacier has lost 92 percent of its mass since the late 1800s.

Speka Glacier


Retreated by more than 150 meters between 1977 and 1990, compared with only 35-45 meters between 1958 and 1977.

Upsala Glacier


Has retreated 60 meters a year on average over the last 60 years, and rate is accelerating.

Quelccaya Glacier

Andes, Peru

Rate of retreat increased to 30 meters a year in the 1990s, up from only 3 meters a year between the 1970s and 1990.

Sources available upon request. For additional examples go to


World Glacier Monitoring Service:
GLACIER website at Rice University:
National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC):
Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR):
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology:


Worldwatch Institute
1776 Massachusetts Ave NW
Washington, DC 20036
telephone: 202 452-1999
fax: 202 296-7365

Lisa Mastny, email:
Also visit the Worldwatch website at