The Heat Is Online

Lovelock: "We're toast"

Gaia scientist Lovelock predicts planetary wipeout
Reuters News Service, Nov 28, 2006

LONDON (Reuters) - The earth has a fever that could boost temperatures by 8 degrees Celsius making large parts of the surface uninhabitable and threatening billions of peoples' lives, a controversial climate scientist said on Tuesday.

 

James Lovelock, who angered climate scientists with his Gaia theory of a living planet and then alienated environmentalists by backing nuclear power, said a traumatized earth might only be able to support less than a tenth of it's 6 billion people.

 

"We are not all doomed. An awful lot of people will die, but I don't see the species dying out," he told a news conference. "A hot earth couldn't support much over 500 million."

 

"Almost all of the systems that have been looked at are in positive feedback ... and soon those effects will be larger than any of the effects of carbon dioxide emissions from industry and so on around the world," he added.

 

Scientists say that global warming due to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels for power and transport could boost average temperatures by up to 6C by the end of the century causing floods, famines and violent storms.

 

But they also say that tough action now to cut carbon emissions could stop atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hitting 450 parts per million -- equivalent to a temperature rise of 2C from pre-industrial levels -- and save the planet.

 

Lovelock said temperature rises of up to 8C were already built in and while efforts to curb it were morally commendable, they were wasted.

 

"It is a bit like if your kidneys fail you can go on dialysis -- and who would refuse dialysis if death is the alternative. We should think of it in that context," he said.

 

"But remember that all they are doing is buying us time, no more. The problems go on," he added.

 

REFUGE

 

Lovelock adopted the name Gaia, the Greek mother earth goddess, in the 1960s to apply to his then revolutionary theory that the earth functions as a single, self-sustaining organism. His theory is now widely accepted.

 

In London to give a lecture on the environment to the Institution of Chemical Engineers, he said the planet had survived dramatic climate change at least seven times.

 

"In the change from the last Ice Age to now we lost land equivalent to the continent of Africa beneath the sea," he said. "We are facing things just as bad or worse than that during this century."

 

"There are refuges, plenty of them. 55 million years ago ... life moved up to the Arctic, stayed there during the course of it and then moved back again as things improved. I fear that this is what we may have to do," he added.

 

Lovelock said the United States, which has rejected the Kyoto Protocol on cutting carbon emissions, wrongly believed there was a technological solution, while booming economies China and India were out of control.

 

China is building a coal-fired power station a week to feed rampant demand, and India's economy is likewise surging.

 

If either suddenly decided to stop their carbon-fuelled development to lift their billions of people out of poverty they would face a revolution, yet if they continued, rising CO2 and temperatures would kill off plants and produce famine, he said.

 

"If climate change goes on course ... I can't see China being able to produce enough food by the middle of the century to support its people. They will have to move somewhere and Siberia is empty and it will be warmer then," he said.

 

© Reuters 2006. All rights reserved.

 

 

Warmer oceans storing climate change dangers

· Sea temperature rise will intensify global warming
· Marine life may be badly hit, warns Lovelock

 

The Guardian, Nov. 29, 2006

 

Global warming is creating a climate time bomb by storing enormous amounts of heat in the waters of the north Atlantic, UK scientists have discovered.

 

Marine researchers at Southampton and Plymouth universities have found that the upper 1,500 metres of the ocean from western Europe to the eastern US have warmed by 0.015C in seven years. The capacity of the oceans to store heat means that a water temperature rise of that size is enough to warm the atmosphere above by almost 9C.

 

Neil Wells, a scientist on the project at the National Oceanographic Centre in Southampton, said: "People might think it doesn't sound like a big temperature rise but it's very significant." The findings were announced in the journal Geophysical Research Letters as James Lovelock, the UK scientist who developed the gaia theory of life on Earth, warned that such ocean warming could stifle marine life and accelerate climate change.

 

Professor Lovelock said that thermal mixing of water and nutrients shuts down when the upper layer of ocean water reaches about 12C. "That's why the tropical waters are clear blue and the water in the Arctic looks like soup," he said. Such a change would affect marine life, which research suggests could help form clouds over the oceans. Warmer waters would receive less protection from sunlight, which would warm them further.

 

The Southampton and Plymouth study suggests heat stored in the oceans could be released into the atmosphere in future, tempering efforts to stabilise global temperatures with cuts in manmade greenhouse gas emissions.

 

The scientists used 200 floats spread across more than 9m square miles of the north Atlantic in 1999 to measure the water's temperature profile accurately for the first time. The floats, part of a worldwide network called Argo, sink to about 2,000 metres and return to the surface every 10 days to transmit their data.

 

Dr Wells said the floats revealed that Atlantic waters closer to the surface between the UK and the US had warmed much more than the average 0.015C figure.

 

Speaking before a lecture to the Institution of Chemical Engineers, Prof Lovelock repeated the prediction, made in his recent book The Revenge of Gaia, that global warming will kill billions of people this century. He said the Earth was undergoing a rapid transition that could boost temperatures by 8C, making large parts of the surface uninhabitable and food production impossible. A hotter planet might be able to support less than a tenth of its 6bn population.

 

"We are not all doomed," he said. "An awful lot of people will die, but I don't see the species dying out."

 

Scientists say global warming, due to unrestricted carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels, could boost average temperatures by up to 6C by the end of the century, causing famine and violent storms. But they also say that action now to cut greenhouse emissions could stop atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reaching 450 parts per million - equivalent to a temperature rise of 2C from pre-industrial levels. But Prof Lovelock said temperature rises of up to 8C were built in. "Trying to take the job on of regulating the Earth is as crazy as you can get," he said. "We have to adapt."