The Heat Is Online

Energy Demand to Rise by 50 percent by 2030: IEA

World energy use seen surging


Energy consumption expected to jump 50% by 2030; greenhouse gasses will see similar rise. Oil prices seen ranging from $113 to $186 a barrel. June 25, 2008


World energy use is expected to surge 50% from 2005 to 2030, largely due to an expanding population and rapid economic growth, according to a government report Wednesday.


Without any new laws restricting greenhouse gasses, carbon dioxide emissions will see a similar jump, the Energy Information Administration said in its annual report on global energy markets.

Demand for new energy is led by the developing world, EIA said.

While developed countries are expected to see a 19% rise in energy use, demand for energy in the developing world is expected to surge 85%.


Oil prices are expected to range from $113 to $186 a barrel, under different price scenarios the agency modeled.


"Given current market conditions, it appears that world oil prices are on a path that more closely resembles the projection in the high price case than in the reference case," the report said.


Under the high price case, world oil use is expected to grow to 99 million barrels a day in 2030, from about 85 million barrels a day currently, as high prices limit demand.


In the medium price case, worldwide oil use is expected to jump to 113 million barrels a day, EIA said, as oil prices ease to about $70 in the next few years and new supplies come online.


The projections in the report were based on 2007 oil prices. Oil has nearly doubled in price since then.


Although the government and the oil companies say producing 113 million barrels of oil a day is possible, market skepticism has kept oil prices high over the last few years.


The International Energy Agency, a sister organization to EIA established by developed countries to counter the influence of OPEC, recently said it is revising its assumptions about oil supply. That agency said it's likely the world will not be able to produce more than 100 million barrels of oil a day by 2030.


Others in the industry, like the oilman T. Boone Pickens, feel the world is pretty much maxed out at 85 million barrels a day.